Public responses to domestic disasters: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Beirut

Abstract

How do disasters affect public opinion in fragile democracies? Previous research on public responses to security failures has been limited to the contexts of intergroup conflict and terrorism. This study presents quasi-experimental evidence on changes in institutional trust following the Beirut blast, a domestic disaster attributed to governmental negligence. The analysis reveals an increase in institutional trust following the blast. At the same time, effect sizes vary substantially across institutions, suggesting that voters in fragile states are capable of differentially attributing responsibility for a disaster. Contrary to conventional rally-effect expectations, I show that this response is likely not driven by heightened patriotism or the influence of opinion leaders. Instead, it appears to be associated with government relief efforts and institutional performance during the crisis. The results have important implications for understanding the political effects of crises in fragile democracies where the legitimacy and competence of state institutions are continuously under public scrutiny.

Yara Sleiman

Postdoctoral Fellow

My research is on how democratic participation is shaped by political cross-pressures, situations where voters are subjected to conflicting influences that affect their political preferences.